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작성자 Finn
댓글 0건 조회 3회 작성일 24-07-03 00:42

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Lorenz was utilising the new-found power of computers in an attempt to more accurately predict the weather. Two weeks is believed to be the limit we could ever achieve however much better computers and software get. The two predictions were anything but. This meant that tiny errors in the measurement of the current weather would not stay tiny, but relentlessly increased in size each time they were fed back into the computer until they had completely swamped the predictions. Lorenz soon realised that while the computer was printing out the predictions to three decimal places, it was actually crunching the numbers internally using six decimal places. Although the computer’s new predictions started out the same as before, the two sets of predictions soon began diverging drastically. In the interests of saving time he decided not to start from scratch; instead he took the computer’s prediction from halfway through the first run and used that as the starting point.

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The starting weather conditions had been virtually identical. You just need to outfit a cozy porch with a wicker sofa and a classic wicker chair, both stocked with sufficient cushions, and the porch will soon become a second family room during the warm weather months. He created a mathematical model which, when supplied with a set of numbers representing the current weather, what is billiards could predict the weather a few minutes in advance. In the case of the weather, the prediction horizon is nowadays about one week (thanks to ever-improving measuring instruments and models). The rate at which these tiny differences stack up provides each chaotic system with a prediction horizon - a length of time beyond which we can no longer accurately forecast its behaviour. Surprisingly, the solar system is a chaotic system too - with a prediction horizon of a hundred million years. The smallest of differences are producing large effects - the hallmark of a chaotic system.



It was the first chaotic system to be discovered, long before there was a Chaos Theory. In 1887, the French mathematician Henri Poincaré showed that while Newton’s theory of gravity could perfectly predict how two planetary bodies would orbit under their mutual attraction, adding a third body to the mix rendered the equations unsolvable. Chaotic systems are an intimate mix of the two: from the outside they display unpredictable and chaotic behaviour, but expose the inner workings and you discover a perfectly deterministic set of equations ticking like clockwork. In this case, Lorenz’s equations were causing errors to steadily grow over time. Lorenz famously illustrated this effect with the analogy of a butterfly flapping its wings and thereby causing the formation of a hurricane half a world away. This non-profit organization has regular exhibits and excursions to show their guests the best way to experience the world through 3D theater, events and guided presentations. Nature exhibits not simply a higher degree but an altogether different level of complexity. Altogether that's a mass of one billion tonnes of humanity jumping ten metres in the air. That's a trillion times heavier than all of humanity.



Chaos Theory is a delicious contradiction - a science of predicting the behaviour of "inherently unpredictable" systems. At the centre of Chaos Theory is the fascinating idea that order and chaos are not always diametrically opposed. How can order on a small scale produce chaos on a larger scale? Not ordinary fear of insult, injury or death, but abject, quivering dread of something that you cannot see-fear that dries the inside of the mouth and half of the throat-fear that makes you sweat in the palms of the hands, arid gulp in order to keep the uvula at work? Which means the distance the Earth moves when everybody jumps will be one trillionth of the distance that all the people jumped: that is to say, 10-11 metres, or about half the radius of a hydrogen atom. Then came the ratub-a curious meal, half native and half English in composition-with the old man babbling behind my chair about dead and gone masters and the wind-blown candles playing shadow-bo-peep with the bed and the mosquito-curtains. The bad-tempered golfer is a nuisance and anxiety to himself and his friends; indeed I have seen it come to such a pass that, though a man may have friends anywhere else, they are not to be found on the links.

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